Erich Grunewald Erich Grunewald

How AI Chips Are Made

Adapted from a section of a report by Erich Grunewald and Christopher Phenicie, this blog post introduces the core concepts and background information needed to understand the AI chip-making process.

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Blog Post Erich Grunewald Blog Post Erich Grunewald

Compute is a Strategic Resource

Computational power (“compute”) is a strategic resource in the way that oil and steel production capacity were in the past. Like oil, and like steel production capacity, compute is scarce, controllable, concentrated, and highly economically and militarily useful. Just as oil and steel were and remain strategic resources to some extent, compute is now also a strategic resource of very high importance.

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Link Post Oscar Delaney Link Post Oscar Delaney

The Hidden AI Frontier

The most advanced AI systems remain hidden inside corporate labs for months before public release—creating both America's greatest technological advantage and a serious security vulnerability. IAPS researchers identify critical risks and propose lightweight interventions to lessen the threat.

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Renan Araujo Renan Araujo

Verification for International AI Governance

The growing impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) are spurring states to consider international agreements that could help manage this rapidly evolving technology. The political feasibility of such agreements can hinge on their verifiability—the extent to which the states involved can determine whether other states are complying. This report, published by the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford analyzes several potential international agreements and ways they could be verified.

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Blog Post Christopher Covino Blog Post Christopher Covino

IAPS Researchers React: The US AI Action Plan

The Trump Administration unveiled its comprehensive AI Action Plan on Wednesday. Experts at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy reviewed the plan with an eye toward its national security implications. As AI continues to accelerate towards very powerful artificial general intelligence, our researchers discuss promising proposals for addressing critical AGI risks, offer key considerations for government implementation, and explore the plan's gaps and potential solutions.

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Research Report Oscar Delaney Research Report Oscar Delaney

Managing Risks from Internal AI Systems

The most powerful AI systems are used internally for months before they are released to the public. These internal AI systems may possess capabilities significantly ahead of the public frontier, particularly in high-stakes, dual-use areas like AI research, cybersecurity, and biotechnology. To address these escalating risks, this report recommends a combination of technical and policy solutions.

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Jam Kraprayoon Jam Kraprayoon

Response to the American Science Acceleration Project RFI

This post contains IAPS’s response to the Request for Information from Senators Heinrich and Rounds as part of the American Science Acceleration Project (ASAP), a national initiative to accelerate the pace of American technical innovation.

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Research Report, Link Post Erich Grunewald Research Report, Link Post Erich Grunewald

Countering AI Chip Smuggling Has Become a National Security Priority: An Updated Playbook for Preventing AI Chip Smuggling to the PRC

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), in collaboration with the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, has released a new working paper which catalogues evidence that substantial quantities of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips are being smuggled into China, undermining U.S. national security.

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Shaun Ee Shaun Ee

Asymmetry by Design: Boosting Cyber Defenders with Differential Access to AI

“Differential access” is a strategy to tilt the cybersecurity balance toward defense by shaping access to advanced AI-powered cyber capabilities. We introduce three possible approaches, Promote Access, Manage Access, and Deny by Default, with one constant across all approaches — even in the most restrictive scenarios, developers should aim to advantage cyber defenders.

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Issue Brief Asher Brass Issue Brief Asher Brass

Location Verification for AI Chips

Adding location verification features to AI chips could unlock new governance mechanisms for regulators, help enforce existing and future export controls by deterring and catching smuggling attempts, and enable post-sale verification of chip locations. This paper is meant to serve as an initial introduction to location verification use-cases for AI chips with comparison of different methods.

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Erich Grunewald Erich Grunewald

Comment on the Bureau of Industry and Security’s Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion

As the administration works towards a strong, streamlined successor to the diffusion rule, we offer recommendations for BIS across three core objectives: (1) Steer the global distribution of American compute to preserve America’s lead in AI; (2) Ensure importing countries—including allies—uphold US export controls or face strict import limits, and use existing technology to address enforcement challenges such as illegal AI chip reexports; and (3) Secure key AI models stored on foreign soil, as model weight theft represents a major potential “compute shortcut” for adversaries.

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Bill Anderson-Samways Bill Anderson-Samways

The US Government’s Role in Advanced AI Development: Predictions and Scenarios

There has been significant recent speculation about whether the US government will lead a future project to build and acquire advanced AI, or continue to play a more arms-length role. We conducted a forecasting workshop on this question, employing the IDEA protocol to elicit predictions from six professional forecasters and five experts on US AI policy.

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