AI Chip Smuggling is the Default, not the Exception
If the US is serious about outcompeting China in AI, it needs to strengthen, not weaken, its AI chip export regime. A crucial first step is eliminating the widespread occurrence of AI chip smuggling.
Are Consumer GPUs a Problem for US Export Controls?
This report analyzes the potential impact of high-end consumer GPUs on the efficacy of US export controls on AI chips. It studies three stockpiling scenarios and what AI capabilities those may enable, and makes recommendations for policymakers.
Spreadsheets vs. Smugglers: Modernizing the BIS for an Era of Tech Rivalry
This blog post by Erich Grunewald (IAPS) and Samuel Hammond (the Foundation for American Innovation) argues that Congress should increase the funding of the Bureau of Industry and Security.
Introduction to AI Chip Making in China
This primer introduces the topic of Chinese AI chip making, relevant to understanding and forecasting China's progress in producing AI chips indigenously.
Preventing AI Chip Smuggling to China
We link to a working paper which was led by Tim Fist of the Center for a New American Security, and coauthored with IAPS researcher Erich Grunewald. It builds on IAPS's earlier report on AI chip smuggling into China.
How Expertise in AI hardware Can Help with AI Governance
This article was written for the organization 80,000 Hours by an IAPS researcher. It discusses why and how it may be valuable to build expertise in AI hardware and use that expertise to reduce risks and improve governance decisions.
AI Chip Smuggling into China: Potential Paths, Quantities, and Countermeasures
This report examines the prospect of large-scale smuggling of AI chips into China and proposes six interventions for mitigating that.